Objective probability estimates the odds of an event occurring through data analysis. It uses concrete measures instead of guesses to provide a reliable forecast.

The problem of estimating the variance of the ratio estimator in sampling with probability proportional to aggregate size is investigated. The form of nonnegative unbiased variance estimators is found ...

Survey sampling and estimation methods form the cornerstone of modern statistical inference, underpinning research across the social, medical, and natural sciences. At their heart, these methods ...

Statisticians who study coincidences are fond of saying that ordinary people don’t know how to estimate the probabilities of coincidences. To illustrate our poor statistical thinking, statisticians ...

New research uncovers why an increase in probability feels riskier than a decrease. The research falls under the realm of subjective probability, also known as likelihood or risk. While past research ...

When evaluating a patient with stable chest pain and no known coronary artery disease (CAD), how does the clinician decide whether to order imaging or other diagnostic tests? One approach involves a ...

A team of researchers have estimated the probability of a Magnitude 9+ earthquake in the Aleutian Islands -- an event with sufficient power to create a mega-tsunami especially threatening to Hawai'i.

Please provide your email address to receive an email when new articles are posted on . In a recent survey study, nearly 80% of physicians overestimated the probability of successful patient outcomes ...