Most long-term models predict Erin will curl away from Florida. Those projections often are unreliable more than a week out, and the hurricane center warned that doubt remains in the forecast. In the four- and five- day range, track forecasts have an average error of about 150 to 215 miles, forecasters said.

It continues to push toward the northern Leeward Islands, where tropical storm watches are now in effect as of the 8 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center. Intensification is expected as Erin moves toward warmer ocean temperatures over the next several days.